Jingdong inflection point has been self accounted for compression WeChat diversion was overestimate

Jingdong inflection point has been self accounted for compression WeChat diversion was overestimate

this Monday (November 16th), Jingdong released the third quarter of 2015 earnings. Reported third quarter net income of 44 billion 100 million yuan, an increase of 52%; however, the Jingdong still continued losses in the three quarter of this year, a net loss of $530 million 800 thousand, net profit rate of -1.2%, the loss over the same period last year has expanded since the Jingdong has consecutive losses for the 8 quarter.

Jingdong total transaction volume in the third quarter of this year (GMV) reached $115 billion, an increase of 71%, the growth rate fell significantly but still in the high growth range. But WeChat, QQ diversion is overestimated, the third party platform contribution close to the ceiling, GMV growth has been declining trend (inflection point has been). In addition, the proportion of the cost of the Jingdong did not decline with the scale of growth, but rose, showing diseconomies of scale.

GMV growth rate of less than 60%, the valuation will be confined to

uses the earnings of high growth enterprises (PE), Pb (PB) to the valuation can not reflect the real value of enterprises, because burn in the market, the profit is "distant legend", while the net assets and market capitalization compared is pitiful. City sales rate (PS) is relatively reliable. More accurate is the market growth rate (PSG), that is, the ratio of market sales and growth rate, the default value is 1 (less than 1 is undervalued, more than 1 overvalued). For example, the pin is 30 times, the growth rate was 30%, PSG was 1, neither high nor underestimate the value of.

for Jingdong and other electricity providers, PS, PSG in S, the total transaction amount (GMV) or revenue, in the past four quarters (2014 Q4 to 2015 Q3), the average growth rate of more than 80% Jingdong GMV, the average revenue growth rate of less than 60%, in line with the valuation not on the high low principle, to I have taken the GMV calculation. The four quarter of last year, Jingdong GMV was $63 billion 200 million, the market value of $39 billion 550 million, PS was 0.62, PSG was $0.78, indicating that the valuation of Jingdong still has a certain growth potential.

but after entering in 2015, Jingdong GMV year on year growth rate was significantly lower: Q1 was 99%, Q2 was 82%, Q3 was 71%, according to this trend PSG will soon rise to more than 1.

uses PSG valuation and replace GMV with S, Jingdong is the most favorable valuation model. If this model is shown to overestimate the market value of Jingdong will face downward pressure.

Jingdong, in order to maintain the current valuation of the annual growth rate of GMV per quarter to be maintained at more than 60%.

GMV structure quietly changed: third party platform impact proprietary

Jingdong has always been a good supplier of electricity supplier quality goods and flow of goods as a selling point, but the self-employed business gross margin is low, the size of the transaction by the logistics capacity constraints. In order to maintain the rapid growth of GMV, to self + open platform mixed mode transformation is the inevitable choice of Jingdong

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